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Hologic (HOLX) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Hologic, Inc. (HOLX - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Nov 9, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of 93 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7%. Its earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 19.32%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.
Factors at Play
Diagnostics
In fourth-quarter fiscal 2023, Hologic is expected to have witnessed growth in the Diagnostics business (excluding COVID) from the growing adoption of Panther instruments and an expanded Panther installed base. The company’s expanded global installed base of more than 3,250 Panthers represents the catalyst for the division's sustained growth. The superior workflow of Panther, combined with a broad menu of nearly 20 FDA-approved assays across Panther and Panther Fusion systems, creates tremendous value for customers and differentiates it from competitors. We believe these growth catalysts to have driven the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.
Molecular Diagnostics is likely to have registered strong growth in the fourth quarter, driven by a combination of both newer assays like BV, CV/TV and contributions from Amgen and HSV, each growing well into the double digits as well as strong growth from the longstanding women's health menu.
Similar to the last reported quarter, the Diagnostics business is expected to decline globally compared with the prior year’s levels due to significantly lower COVID testing.
Per our model, Hologic’s Diagnostic’s business revenues are projected at $488.3 million in Q4, a 6.2% decline year over year.
Breast Health
In the past few quarters, semiconductor chip availability has continued to improve, allowing the delivery of more gantries. Further, exceptional demand for clinically differentiated mammography instruments remains high. We believe these trends to have continued in the fiscal fourth quarter as well.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2023, the Breast Health arm registered strong growth primarily driven by increased volumes of digital mammography systems, especially 3D Dimensions systems and related workstation and workflow products, including software. Further, increased Trident systems unit sales and higher Faxitron breast-conserving surgery products aided growth. The increase in volume was driven by the improvement in supply chain constraints related to electronic components, primarily semiconductor chips. In addition, the company is also witnessing increased sales of its interventional breast solutions products driven by Brevera systems and related needles. We believe these trends will continue through the fiscal fourth quarter as well, thus driving top-line growth.
Per our model, Hologic’s Breast Health’s business revenues are projected at $296.3 million for the fiscal fourth quarter, up 7.7% year over year.
GYN Surgical
Similar to the last reported quarter, Hologic’s GYN Surgical is expected to have registered vital contributions from a hysteroscopic portfolio of MyoSure, the Fluent fluid management system and NovaSure. Through the Acessa and Bolder acquisitions, the company integrated Acessa’s procedure and the Bolder’s advanced vessel sealing portfolio in its product line. Acessa is a unique radio frequency fibroid removal solution forming a new market. With Boulder, the company is entering an underdeveloped market by deploying its large surgical sales force. We believe these strategic efforts to have contributed to the company’s top line in the fiscal fourth quarter.
We note that similar to industry-wide trends, Hologic’s surgical business is likely to have been impacted by staffing shortages, which reduced hospital capacity. Choppy market conditions due to persistent foreign exchange impact are a concern. Moreover, Hologic’s mammography, related products and subsystems compete on a worldwide basis with products offered by a number of competitors, which is expected to have impacted the company’s sales in the quarter to be reported.
Per our model, Hologic’s GYN Surgical’s business revenues are projected at $129.7 million in the said quarter, suggesting a 4.7% decline year over year.
The Estimate Picture
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fiscal fourth-quarter revenues of $941.4 million suggests a decline of 1.3% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 85 cents, indicating a rise of 3.7% from the year-ago reported figure.
What Our Model Suggests
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hologic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Hologic has an Earnings ESP of +1.35%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Hologic currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Worth a Look
Here are some medical stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Insulet has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 35.7%. PODD has an earnings yield of 1.13% against the industry’s -2.58%.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.76% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2.
ACAD has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 43.4%. In the trailing four quarters, the company delivered an average earnings surprise of 20.33%.
Dentsply Sirona (XRAY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2.
Dentsply Sirona has an expected earnings growth rate of 14.7% for the following year. XRAY’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.51%.
Image: Bigstock
Hologic (HOLX) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Nov 9, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of 93 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7%. Its earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 19.32%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.
Factors at Play
Diagnostics
In fourth-quarter fiscal 2023, Hologic is expected to have witnessed growth in the Diagnostics business (excluding COVID) from the growing adoption of Panther instruments and an expanded Panther installed base. The company’s expanded global installed base of more than 3,250 Panthers represents the catalyst for the division's sustained growth. The superior workflow of Panther, combined with a broad menu of nearly 20 FDA-approved assays across Panther and Panther Fusion systems, creates tremendous value for customers and differentiates it from competitors. We believe these growth catalysts to have driven the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported.
Molecular Diagnostics is likely to have registered strong growth in the fourth quarter, driven by a combination of both newer assays like BV, CV/TV and contributions from Amgen and HSV, each growing well into the double digits as well as strong growth from the longstanding women's health menu.
Similar to the last reported quarter, the Diagnostics business is expected to decline globally compared with the prior year’s levels due to significantly lower COVID testing.
Per our model, Hologic’s Diagnostic’s business revenues are projected at $488.3 million in Q4, a 6.2% decline year over year.
Breast Health
In the past few quarters, semiconductor chip availability has continued to improve, allowing the delivery of more gantries. Further, exceptional demand for clinically differentiated mammography instruments remains high. We believe these trends to have continued in the fiscal fourth quarter as well.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2023, the Breast Health arm registered strong growth primarily driven by increased volumes of digital mammography systems, especially 3D Dimensions systems and related workstation and workflow products, including software. Further, increased Trident systems unit sales and higher Faxitron breast-conserving surgery products aided growth. The increase in volume was driven by the improvement in supply chain constraints related to electronic components, primarily semiconductor chips. In addition, the company is also witnessing increased sales of its interventional breast solutions products driven by Brevera systems and related needles. We believe these trends will continue through the fiscal fourth quarter as well, thus driving top-line growth.
Hologic, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Hologic, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Hologic, Inc. Quote
Per our model, Hologic’s Breast Health’s business revenues are projected at $296.3 million for the fiscal fourth quarter, up 7.7% year over year.
GYN Surgical
Similar to the last reported quarter, Hologic’s GYN Surgical is expected to have registered vital contributions from a hysteroscopic portfolio of MyoSure, the Fluent fluid management system and NovaSure. Through the Acessa and Bolder acquisitions, the company integrated Acessa’s procedure and the Bolder’s advanced vessel sealing portfolio in its product line. Acessa is a unique radio frequency fibroid removal solution forming a new market. With Boulder, the company is entering an underdeveloped market by deploying its large surgical sales force. We believe these strategic efforts to have contributed to the company’s top line in the fiscal fourth quarter.
We note that similar to industry-wide trends, Hologic’s surgical business is likely to have been impacted by staffing shortages, which reduced hospital capacity. Choppy market conditions due to persistent foreign exchange impact are a concern. Moreover, Hologic’s mammography, related products and subsystems compete on a worldwide basis with products offered by a number of competitors, which is expected to have impacted the company’s sales in the quarter to be reported.
Per our model, Hologic’s GYN Surgical’s business revenues are projected at $129.7 million in the said quarter, suggesting a 4.7% decline year over year.
The Estimate Picture
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fiscal fourth-quarter revenues of $941.4 million suggests a decline of 1.3% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 85 cents, indicating a rise of 3.7% from the year-ago reported figure.
What Our Model Suggests
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hologic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Hologic has an Earnings ESP of +1.35%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Hologic currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Worth a Look
Here are some medical stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Insulet (PODD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.61% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will release third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Insulet has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 35.7%. PODD has an earnings yield of 1.13% against the industry’s -2.58%.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.76% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2.
ACAD has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 43.4%. In the trailing four quarters, the company delivered an average earnings surprise of 20.33%.
Dentsply Sirona (XRAY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 2.
Dentsply Sirona has an expected earnings growth rate of 14.7% for the following year. XRAY’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.51%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.